Posted by
stevo on Monday, November 06, 2006 1:43:09 PM
I have been living and breathing Senate races over the last several months thanks to RealClearPolitics.com. Here are a few observations and predictions...
Pennsylvania--Santorum has long been out of the mainstream of PA politics, but has squeaked by for various reason in the past (principle? charisma?). Based on those intangibles, I think he'll only lose by 6-7%. DEM PICK UP.
Ohio--Anything Republican in the Ohio political scene this season will be crushed due to the corruption scandles of Taft and Ney. I'll go with the polling that has him losing 6-8%. DEM PICK UP.
Rhode Island--Chafee has largely closed the gap in the polling against Whitehouse, but his state is too blue for him to survive in this cycle. He'll go down by 2-4%. DEM PICK UP.
Montana--Burns had been struggling because of the Abramoff scandal for months, but has closed recently to a statistical dead heat. Due to the "red" composition of this state, I'll have Burns winning by 1-2%. REP HOLD.
Missouri--This is perhaps the hardest race to call with its consistent dead heat status over several months. It'll go down to the wire, but I think McCaskill will pull out this race with support for the stem-cell measure by 1-2%. DEM PICK UP.
Tennessee--Recent polling has shown Corker pulling ahead of Ford by a decent major. Consider the conservative composition of this state, I believe Corker will win by a healthy 6%. REP HOLD.
Virginia--Despite Allen's many blunders and a gradual "purpleing" of Virginia, I believe that the conservative tide in the south and western parts of the state will carry Allen to a victory over an opponent with perverted writings by 2-3%. REP HOLD.
New Jersey--This was a surprise pick for a while for a Rep Pick Up, but that prediction seems no longer valid with Menendez picking up steam in the polls. Obviously, corruption is not too large of a factor in this blue state. Menendez should win by 4-5%. DEM HOLD>
Maryland--I believe this will be the surprise pick up for Republicans in this election cycle. Anti-democratic sentiment amongst the significant black population in the state should carry Steele to a surprising 1-2% victory. REP PICK UP.
Michigan--I'm just mentioning this race because I believe it will be tighter than normally believe. Democratic Debbie will win, but only by 3-4% over Bouchard. DEM HOLD.
PREDICTION: The Democrats will pick up 4 seats, but that will be offset by a Republican pick up in MD, for a net gain for Democrats of 3 seats.