Posted by
stevo on Friday, August 04, 2006 1:43:53 PM
I just read Ryan Sager's critique (realclearpolitics.com) of Kate O'Beirne's NR article on Giuliani's electoral prospects...
Now, I will admit that I have not read O'Beirne's article yet, but
Sager's critique seems to be well-reasoned. We cannot casually dismiss
polling numbers and assume that one's record or personal life will
necessarily discredit that person. Social conservatives cannot simply
sweep Rudy Giuliani under the proverbial rug and pretend that his
current polling numbers are an anomaly. It would be a mistake on par
with underestimating Hillary Clinton's ability to win a run at the
White House. Both of these politicians are powerful public figures with
a strong and energized base (although in different places on the
ideological spectrum).
By no means could I be considered a Giuliani-optimist, however. Strong
leadership abilities and fiscal conservatism may play well amongst
Northeast Republicans (as McCain put on display during the 2000
primaries). In the socially-conservative South, I see Giuliani's boat
getting sunk. As the primaries move from New Hampshire to South
Carolina, it seems to me that Sen. McCain is currently in the best
position. If you recall, President Bush took a giant step forward in SC
in 2000, and McCain lost--noticably hurt by his attack upon Falwell and
other southern social conservatives.
This time around, McCain occupies the high ground in the important
southern primaries. He has mended his relationship with Jerry Falwell,
and been more conciliatory in tone. Thus, when Giuliani comes south and
his social positions prove to demerit his electability, McCain will
clean up the pragmatic-principled voters (while Allen, Romney, etc.
will attract a small cadre of voters who will vote purely on principle).
I have read "Leadership" by Rudy Giuliani, and find him a
more-than-competent politician who displays that leadership quality to
a tee. He would be a great president in many respects. Yet, we cannot
throw social conservatism out the window in the same manner that
President Bush and many national Republicans have discarded fiscal
conservatism. Our movement needs both the fiscal conservatives in the
North and the social conservatives in the South. We cannot embrace
Rudyism at the expense of Brownbackianism. If we forsake either group,
we will need a coroner--and I dread the day when Dr. Hillary and Nurse
Dean come to pick apart our rotting remains.
2008 will not be the year of Rudy, nor should it be.